Network connectedness of the term structure of yield curve and global Sukuks

This paper explores the connectedness between the returns and volatilities of the conventional and Islamic bond markets. We use the level, slope, and curvature of the US yield curve and estimate the connectedness of these factors with the Dow Jones Islamic indices (of 3 to 10 years of maturity) as well as the minimum connectedness portfolio. The static analysis shows that level and slope of the conventional yield curve are the net transmitters of shocks while the Islamic indices have been mostly at the receiving end. The dynamic connectedness analysis shows a varying degree of the connectedness over the full sample period characterized by distinctive trajectories of booms and busts. The pairwise connectedness analysis also confirms that level and slope are the net transmitters in the system with an exception in most recent times of Covid-19 pandemic. The findings have implications for the researchers, policy makers, regulators, shariah boards, investors, and fund managers.

Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC

Using a bivariate dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, this study compares the safe-haven properties of various assets against the major Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) stock indexes during two periods of financial turmoil, the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Sovereign bonds offered the highest hedging benefits under both crises. The traditional safe assets, gold and silver, which were reasonably productive under the GFC, have been less so during the pandemic. The Japanese yen emerged as a very safe choice for investors holding GCC stock indexes. Both sector indexes and stock indexes failed to safeguard investors most of the time during each crisis.

Sukuk and bond dynamics in relation to exchange rate

PurposeThis study aims to contribute by expanding the existing literature on Sukuk return and volatility and exploring the implications of the Sukuk-exchange rate interactions.Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the dynamic interactions of Sukuk with exchange rate in 15 countries, employing the Wavelet approach that considers both time and investment horizons.FindingsThe results reveal significant evolving coherence of Sukuk return and volatility with the underlying exchange rate. The relationship is more potent than what this study witnesses in their counterpart bond market. For Sukuk returns, the coherence is negative, whereas it is positive for volatility. Notably, the coherence is strong in the medium to long term and intensifies during extreme economic episodes, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are further validated by comparing firm-level matched data for Sukuk and conventional bond.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that reports the dynamic relationship of Sukuk return and volatility with the underlying exchange rate in 15 countries. Collectively, this study unites valuable insights for faith-based active Islamic investors and cross-border portfolio managers.

Sukuk returns dynamics under bullish and bearish market conditions: do COVID-19 related news and government measures matter?

The rapid and far-reaching spread of COVID-19 related news can alter investors' perceptions and investment behaviour and affect security returns. We investigate this hypothesis by studying the impact of COVID-19 related news (panic news, media-hype new, fake news, infodemic, and Stringency measures) and alternative measures of COVID-19 developed by Narayan et al. (2021) on Sukuk returns during different market conditions. Empirical results show asymmetric comovement between global Sukuk returns, panic news, travel bans, and the percentage of information about the novel COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the COVID-19 news affects the Sukuk returns only when the sukuk markets are bearish. The Sukuk returns are not affected by medical and vaccine information, and the aggregate COVID-19 index that captures the pandemic sentiment.

Religion vs ethics: hedge and safe haven properties of Sukuk and green bonds for stock markets pre- and during COVID-19

PurposeThis study aims to examine the hedge and safe-haven properties of the Sukuk and green bond for the stock markets pre- and during the COVID-19 pandemic period.Design/methodology/approachTo test the hedge and safe-haven characteristics of Sukuk and green bonds for stock markets, the study first uses the methodology proposed by Ratner and Chiu (2013). Next, the authors estimate the hedge ratios and hedge effectiveness of using Sukuk and green bonds in a portfolio with stock markets.FindingsStrong safe-haven features of ethical (green) bonds reveal that adding green bonds into the investment portfolios brings considerable diversification avenues for the investors who tend to take fewer risks in periods of economic stress and turbulence. The hedge ratio and hedge effectiveness estimates reveal that green bonds provide sufficient evidence of the hedge effectiveness for various international stocks.Practical implicationsThe study has significant implications for faith-based investors, ethical investors, policymakers and regulatory bodies. Religious investors can invest in Sukuk to relish low-risk and interest-free investments, whereas green investors can satisfy their socially responsible motives by investing in these investment streams. Policymakers can direct the businesses to include these diversifiers for portfolio and risk management.Originality/valueThe study provides novel insights in the testing hedge and safe-haven attributes of green bonds and Sukuk while using unique methodologies to identify multiple low-risk investors for investors following the uncertain COVID-19 pandemic.

Islamic Sukuk and Its Role in Economic Recovery and Growth Post-Covid

Islamic Sukuk witnessed consistent growth over the past years and is expected to follow the same trend. Sukuk issuance continues by states and corporates alike. Sukuk serves two purposes. That is to say, the issuers of Sukuk aim at diversifying the sources of funds, especially under difficult economic situations. Meanwhile, investor demand remains intact due to the shortage of new Sukuk supply and the global quest for profit. While Sukuk usually enjoys healthy annual yields, also it is unlikely to default. Compared to overall issuances by the end of 2021, the defaulted Sukuk stands at a meagre rate of 0.27%, making it an attractive and secure financial instrument. Therefore, Sukuk issuance becomes part of the value proposition of world financial centres such as the U.K., Luxembourg, Hong Kong, and others. This paper analysis Sukuk's impact on the country's economic development by focusing on specific countries with different economic-financial experiences. Furthermore, it will investigate the feasibility of Sukuk in supporting diverse sources of funds and liquidity. In addition, this paper examines the role of Sukuk in achieving economic growth and development post-Covid pandemic. It also attempts to ascertain the critical phases of economic growth and links them to Sukuk in order to assess the effectiveness and significance of Sukuk in being a potential financial instrument that could support the economies in the post-Covid period. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Investment decisions in digital sukuk in the time of COVID-19: do tax incentives matter?

Although the sukuk market has maintained remarkable growth momentum over the recent years, the optimism has been significantly moderated by the abrupt shock due to the pervasive COVID-19 pandemic. However, sukuk can be used as an effective financing option by governments to overcome a fiscal deficit and to support those adversely affected by the pandemic. Sukuk Prihatin (SP), the first-ever digital sukuk issued by the Government of Malaysia, has launched to engage citizens to contribute to the country's recovery efforts in the wake of COVID-19. Therefore, this study aims to probe the motivation that influences retail investors' inclination to invest in such innovative sukuk. Based on an integrated model of planned behavior (TPB) and social cognitive theories (SCT) and data gathered from 279 retail investors, this research found that attitude towards SP investment (SPI), social norms, perceived control regarding SPI, sukuk features and digitization are significant determinants of investors' willingness to invest in SP. It also revealed that tax incentives-moderated interactions of social norms, perceived control and sukuk features on SPI intention are significant. © 2021 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group.

Asymmetric relationship between green bonds and Sukuk markets: The role of global risk factors

This study investigates the asymmetric connectedness and spillover effects between two ethical fixed-income assets (Sukuk and green bonds) with regard to global risk factors using a sample of 15 Sukuk markets and green bond indices. This complex network allows us to examine the extreme risk spillover and interlinkages across green bonds and Sukuk under different market conditions, captures sudden upward changes in the total and net spillover indices and hence, serves as an alerting system for any impending crisis in relation to global risk factors. Empirical results indicate a persistency feature in the connectedness between Hong Kong and Malaysian, and UK and Nigerian Sukuk markets under different market conditions. More importantly, Sukuk and green bond markets are not largely affected by global risk factors in the middle, upper and lower quantiles. Findings from the portfolio analysis show that Sukuk is effective in hedging the risks of green bonds and global factors. These results of potential diversification characteristics and risk reduction benefits are robust and hold during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Finally, our findings are of paramount importance for investors who are interested in ethical investments as well as policymakers in order to maintain a stable and sound financial system. © 2022 The Author(s)

The extreme return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds and their determinants and consequences for investors

This study aimed to investigate the return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds at the middle, left and right tail using the new quantile-based connectivity methodology from Ando et al. (2018). We find that the average level of connectedness estimated at the mean/median is lower than that estimated at the left and right quantiles. Therefore, return connectedness between Sukuk and green links is higher in the left and right tails, indicating that the application of the mean-based connectivity measure is inappropriate. Next, we show that the connectedness of returns varies over time but varies less in the tails. In particular, the dynamic connectivity analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the Sukuk and green bond markets. The Return connectedness driver's analysis shows the importance of macroeco-nomic conditions, particularly in the middle and lower quintiles. The US dollar bodes well positively for both bears and bulls, while uncertainty in equity markets amplifies return spillovers in the lower quintile. Moreover, the weak return spillovers between Sukuk and green bonds in-dicates that there is indeed an opportunity for optimal asset allocation. The highest hedging ef-ficiency can be achieved by taking short positions in US Green Bonds.

Assessing the impact of media sentiment on the returns of sukuks during the Covid-19 crisis

The wavelet approach covering simultaneously the time and frequency domains is employed to study the impact of the Covid-19 coverage in mass media on the performance of the Dow Jones Sukuk investment grade total return indices. The overall coherence level for the media-coverage – sukuk pairs is found to increase with the investment horizon. Multiple time-frequency regions with low level of coherence, observable along the Covid-19 systemic crisis, imply attractive diversification attributes of investing in Islamic fixed-income securities especially in times of financial stress and turmoil. We investigate coherence and phase difference patterns, which differ for distinct maturity buckets of the Sukuk indices, further highlighting their potentiality for the downside risk hedge, workable under economic and financial distress.

The impact of COVID-19 on GCC equity and debt markets: Evidence from TVP-VAR estimation

COVID-19 has rapidly evolved into a global pandemic and has strongly impacted financial markets of the world, including the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Since the outbreak is unprecedented, there is a need to analyze the effects of the disease on volatility spillovers between equity and bond markets. We empirically investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial equity and debt markets in the GCC region. We used the TVP-VAR dynamic connectedness approach to measure risk transmission in the GCC market. This study investigated the time-varying behavior of GCC equity and conventional and Islamic debt markets using data from 1 January 2019 to 30 August 2021. The results were also validated by performing a DCC-GARCH analysis to check the shock and spillovers among the GCC markets. We found the persistent shock transmitter roles of equity markets to bond and Sukuk markets in the GCC region, and the total dynamic connectedness increased during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, the significant level of interconnectedness exists within the GCC markets.

Sukuk and bond dynamics in relation to exchange rate

PurposeThis study aims to contribute by expanding the existing literature on Sukuk return and volatility and exploring the implications of the Sukuk-exchange rate interactions. Design/methodology/approachThis study examines the dynamic interactions of Sukuk with exchange rate in 15 countries, employing the Wavelet approach that considers both time and investment horizons. FindingsThe results reveal significant evolving coherence of Sukuk return and volatility with the underlying exchange rate. The relationship is more potent than what this study witnesses in their counterpart bond market. For Sukuk returns, the coherence is negative, whereas it is positive for volatility. Notably, the coherence is strong in the medium to long term and intensifies during extreme economic episodes, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings are further validated by comparing firm-level matched data for Sukuk and conventional bond. Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that reports the dynamic relationship of Sukuk return and volatility with the underlying exchange rate in 15 countries. Collectively, this study unites valuable insights for faith-based active Islamic investors and cross-border portfolio managers.

The extreme return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds and their determinants and consequences for investors

This study aimed to investigate the return connectedness between Sukuk and green bonds at the middle, left and right tail using the new quantile-based connectivity methodology from Ando et al. (2018). We find that the average level of connectedness estimated at the mean/median is lower than that estimated at the left and right quantiles. Therefore, return connectedness between Sukuk and green links is higher in the left and right tails, indicating that the application of the mean-based connectivity measure is inappropriate. Next, we show that the connectedness of returns varies over time but varies less in the tails. In particular, the dynamic connectivity analysis indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the Sukuk and green bond markets. The Return connectedness driver's analysis shows the importance of macroeconomic conditions, particularly in the middle and lower quintiles. The US dollar bodes well positively for both bears and bulls, while uncertainty in equity markets amplifies return spillovers in the lower quintile. Moreover, the weak return spillovers between Sukuk and green bonds indicates that there is indeed an opportunity for optimal asset allocation. The highest hedging efficiency can be achieved by taking short positions in US Green Bonds.

Asymmetric relationship between green bonds and Sukuk markets: The role of global risk factors

This study investigates the asymmetric connectedness and spillover effects between two ethical fixed-income assets (Sukuk and green bonds) with regard to global risk factors using a sample of 15 Sukuk markets and green bond indices. This complex network allows us to examine the extreme risk spillover and interlinkages across green bonds and Sukuk under different market conditions, captures sudden upward changes in the total and net spillover indices and hence, serves as an alerting system for any impending crisis in relation to global risk factors. Empirical results indicate a persistency feature in the connectedness between Hong Kong and Malaysian, and UK and Nigerian Sukuk markets under different market conditions. More importantly, Sukuk and green bond markets are not largely affected by global risk factors in the middle, upper and lower quantiles. Findings from the portfolio analysis show that Sukuk is effective in hedging the risks of green bonds and global factors. These results of potential diversification characteristics and risk reduction benefits are robust and hold during the Covid-19 pandemic period. Finally, our findings are of paramount importance for investors who are interested in ethical investments as well as policymakers in order to maintain a stable and sound financial system.

Safe haven properties of green, Islamic, and crypto assets and investor's proclivity towards treasury and gold

A search for a safe haven inspired by investors' loss aversion significantly exacerbates in times of turbulence. The same happened during the crisis of Covid-19 when recurring losses forced investors to alter their investment strategies, and the search for alternative investment classes picked momentum. This study evaluates the safe haven properties of Green financial products, Islamic assets, and Cryptocurrencies, which gained prominence in financial markets after the global financial crisis, coupled with the long-acknowledged safe haven assets like Gold, Silver, and Treasuries. We employ a quantile VAR framework to examine the connectedness between the assets' markets during stressed, normal, and euphoric periods. Our results show that both Green and Islamic Bonds only act as a safe haven during the normal market condition;however, US Treasury, cryptocurrencies, and gold emerged as safe-haven assets under bearish or extreme volatility periods. While proclivity towards US Treasury and gold supports the phenomenon of flight-to-safety, we find cryptos have also become investors' preference amid bearish trends finding their way into the list of safe havens for investors.

Ṣukūk or Bond, Which Is More Sustainable during COVID-19? Global Evidence from the Wavelet Coherence Model

Understanding the co-movement and lag–lead relations among indices is integral to financial decision making. These parameters show the reactiveness of the market towards new information. Understanding them helps to minimize risk and facilitates optimal portfolio diversification. By employing the wavelet coherence econometric model, the authors of this study analyzed the intricate relations among the Bond and Ṣukūk indices using global data belonging to the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The findings indicated the presence of strong but similar implications of the initial shock of COVID-19 deaths on both Islamic and conventional markets’ volatilities, especially in long-term investment bands (64–128 days). The results oppose the general belief that Islamic finance is more sustainable and less volatile to crises than its traditional counterparts. Moreover, the authors of this study report diverse relationships among bond and Ṣukūk indices throughout the sample periods. We consistently found low correlations in short-term investment bands (4–16), leading to optimal diversification opportunities. However, high correlations were reported due to COVID-19 in the long-term investment bands (128–256), leading to low diversification opportunities for long-term investors.

Analysis of Non-Permanent Sukuk Investment in the Pandemic Era

In simple terms, sukuk are sharia securities. In another sense, sukuk are sharia securities which are one of the investment instruments. Sukuk is a form of investment that has an impact on the national economy, which is currently weakening due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has had an impact on the stagnation of the community's economy, from business to financial institutions (sharia and conventional). The state has a need to fulfill the state budget in order to quickly respond to problems from the impact of covid 19. This paper is intended to analyze non-permanent sukuk investments during the COVID-19 pandemic. The data collection process is carried out by analyzing the observed data through OJK statistics and collecting various information related to COVID-19 and the data is analyzed qualitatively. Based on the results of the study, it was found that Sukuk became a source of funds for the government to finance development, thus creating new jobs for the community in the long term. Sukuk provide benefits for the liquidity of Islamic financial institutions due to the impact of COVID-19, as well as investment facilities for the community.

How COVID-19 pandemic, global risk factors, and oil prices affect Islamic bonds (Sukuk) prices? New insights from time-frequency analysis

This paper studies the time?frequency co-movement among Islamic bond (Sukuk) prices, the recent spread of COVID-19, oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, global financial uncertainty, and global financial distress. The Dow Jones Sukuk Index (hereafter DJSI) is used as a proxy of the global Sukuk market. The Malaysian Sovereign Sukuk index is also used for comparison purposes because Malaysia maintains a leading position as the strongest global player in Islamic finance. The effect of global risk and uncertainty factors on Sukuk prices is controlled for using partial wavelet coherency. The empirical results indicate that the co-movements between the Sukuk prices (both global and Malaysian Sukuk) and global economic and financial risk factors are time and frequency varying. We also find that global and Malaysian Sukuk markets behave differently with global risk factors throughout the COVID-19 pandemic period. Furthermore, we find that the co-movement between Sukuk prices (both global and Malaysian Sukuk) and COVID-19-infected cases is stronger only in the short term.

The creative industries effects on economic performance in the time of pandemic

Purpose: This paper aims to investigate empirically whether creative industries are boosting the economic performance of the ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei Darussalam) during the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: This paper applied a random effect and fixed effect estimation approach to investigate the impact of creative industries’ development (government expenditure on education, export of creative industries, trade openness, innovation index, sukuk issuances) on the economic performance spanning from 2010 to 2020. Findings: The economic performance was proxied by two dependent variables, namely, the gross domestic product and the Misery Index. On top of containment and vaccination measures, the findings demonstrated that creative industries are enhancing economic growth in Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, supported by the significant role of the sukuk market as a vital contributor to economic growth. Originality/value: This study is unique because it provides novel and empirical results of the creative industries’ development on economic performance in the ASEAN countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.

Green sukuk – Malaysia surviving the bumpy road: performance, challenges and reconciled issuance framework

Purpose>Green sukuk is a tool to finance climate change which has garnered considerable attention. However, having only recently come into existence has its own set of challenges for this tool that require immediate identification and government intervention to intensify its growth. This study aims to explore the challenges encountered by green sukuk issuers and the structure of a reconciled green sukuk issuance framework to speed up the market’s growth with the right interventions.Design/methodology/approach>The study engaged a qualitative approach via multiple case study interviews with green sukuk issuers and used expert views for data triangulation to generate the findings. A total of four green sukuk issuers participated in the interviews, and for data triangulation purposes, four expert’s opinions and views were considered. The thematic analysis technique is used to report the findings.Findings>It was revealed that amongst the challenges encountered in the green sukuk market are shoddy green taxonomy, difficulty in identifying green assets, it is time-consuming and costly, no compelling benefits and exposure to higher-risk profiles.Research limitations/implications>This study may be influenced by observer error and observer bias. However, the researchers have taken cautious steps to overcome these issues by following strict case study methodology procedures and triangulating the qualitative research findings with views from green sukuk experts. These interventions increased the rigour and trustworthiness of the results.Originality/value>This study is amongst the pioneer in Malaysia, exploring challenges in the green sukuk market. The results are relevant to governments, regulators, institutions and central banks to structure the right interventions to counter the challenges. Greater government involvement is required to strengthen the green sukuk market and to spearhead the green agenda.